Risk Management Definitions

A Risk is the potential for a negative consequence which may be realized in the future, with respect to AI Safety.  The potential is measured by the likelihood or probability. The consequence is measured by impact. Other dimensions, such as urgency with respect to time, can be used to measure risks.   

1 - Negligible 

2 - Marginal 

3 - Major 

4 - Critical 

5 - Catastrophic 

Please note - It is our intent to align these consequence categories and have them mapped to the preeminent standards used around the world such as:

MIL-STD-882 Appendix A

https://safety.army.mil/Portals/0/Documents/ON-DUTY/SYSTEMSAFETY/Standard/MIL-STD-882E-change-1.pdf

NASA s30001 Table 4-3

https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/s3001_guidelines_for_risk_management_-_ver_g_-_10-25-2017.pdf

1 - Articulable - Non-zero chance of occurring by 2030 

2 - Possible - 1% 

3 - Unlikely - 5 % Chance of occurring by 2030 

4 - Probable - 20% chance of occurring by 2030 

5 - Highly Likely - 50% chance of occurring by 2030  

Severity is a composite/vector score made up of 2 weights - A multiplication of Risk Likelihood and Risk Consequence. Ranges from 0 to 25

Urgency is a composite/vector score made up of 3 weights - A multiple of Risk Consequence, Likelihood and Risk Controllability. Ranges from 0 to 625

Given [insert current or future condition] there is a possibility of [insert bad things that can happen], adversely impacting [insert any person, thing, or asset that is impacted], thereby leading to [insert safety related consequence that aligns with a defined consequence level]  

1 - Controls are active, well understood, and mature
2 - Controls are active with confident understanding
3 - Controls are active and getting public attention, but with significant uncertainty
4 - Controls are partially active, but incomplete or not well understood
5 - Extremely difficult to control